J Biomed Inform - Prediction of influenza vaccination outcome by neural networks and logistic regression.

Tópicos

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Resumo

The major challenge in influenza vaccination is to predict vaccine efficacy. The purpose of this study was to design a model to enable successful prediction of the outcome of influenza vaccination based on real historical medical data. A non-linear neural network approach was used, and its performance compared to logistic regression. The three neural network algorithms were tested: multilayer perceptron, radial basis and probabilistic in conjunction with parameter optimization and regularization techniques in order to create an influenza vaccination model that could be used for prediction purposes in the medical practice of primary health care physicians, where the vaccine is usually dispensed. The selection of input variables was based on a model of the vaccine strain which has frequently been changed and on which a poor influenza vaccine response is expected. The performance of models was measured by the average hit rate of negative and positive vaccine outcome. In order to test the generalization ability of the models, a 10-fold cross-validation procedure revealed that the model obtained by multilayer perceptron produced the highest average hit rate among neural network algorithms, and also outperformed the logistic regression model with regard to sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity analysis was performed on the best model and the importance of input variables was discussed. Further research should focus on improving the performance of the model by combining neural networks with other intelligent methods in this field.

Resumo Limpo

major challeng influenza vaccin predict vaccin efficaci purpos studi design model enabl success predict outcom influenza vaccin base real histor medic data nonlinear neural network approach use perform compar logist regress three neural network algorithm test multilay perceptron radial basi probabilist conjunct paramet optim regular techniqu order creat influenza vaccin model use predict purpos medic practic primari health care physician vaccin usual dispens select input variabl base model vaccin strain frequent chang poor influenza vaccin respons expect perform model measur averag hit rate negat posit vaccin outcom order test general abil model fold crossvalid procedur reveal model obtain multilay perceptron produc highest averag hit rate among neural network algorithm also outperform logist regress model regard sensit specif sensit analysi perform best model import input variabl discuss research focus improv perform model combin neural network intellig method field

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