J Biomed Inform - A method for estimating from thermometer sales the incidence of diseases that are symptomatically similar to influenza.

Tópicos

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Resumo

Early detection and accurate characterization of disease outbreaks are important tasks of public health. Infectious diseases that present symptomatically like influenza (SLI), including influenza itself, constitute an important class of diseases that are monitored by public-health epidemiologists. Monitoring emergency department (ED) visits for presentations of SLI could provide an early indication of the presence, extent, and dynamics of such disease in the population. We investigated the use of daily over-the-counter thermometer-sales data to estimate daily ED SLI counts in Allegheny County (AC), Pennsylvania. We found that a simple linear model fits the data well in predicting daily ED SLI counts from daily counts of thermometer sales in AC. These results raise the possibility that this model could be applied, perhaps with adaptation, in other regions of the country, where commonly thermometer sales data are available, but daily ED SLI counts are not.

Resumo Limpo

earli detect accur character diseas outbreak import task public health infecti diseas present symptomat like influenza sli includ influenza constitut import class diseas monitor publichealth epidemiologist monitor emerg depart ed visit present sli provid earli indic presenc extent dynam diseas popul investig use daili overthecount thermometersal data estim daili ed sli count allegheni counti ac pennsylvania found simpl linear model fit data well predict daili ed sli count daili count thermomet sale ac result rais possibl model appli perhap adapt region countri common thermomet sale data avail daili ed sli count

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