Med Decis Making - Measuring risk perceptions: what does the excessive use of 50% mean?

Tópicos

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Resumo

JECTIVES: Risk perceptions are central to good health decisions. People can judge valid probabilities but use 50% disproportionately. The authors hypothesized that 50% is more likely than other responses to reflect not knowing the probability, especially among individuals with low education and numeracy, and evaluated the usefulness of eliciting "don't know" explanations.METHODS: Respondents (n = 1020) judged probabilities for living or dying in the next 10 years, indicating whether they gave a good estimate or did not know the chances. They completed demographics, medical history, and numeracy questions.RESULTS: Overall, 50% was more likely than other probabilities to be explained as "don't know" (v. "a good estimate"). Correlations of using 50% with low education and numeracy were mediated by expressing "don't know." Judged probabilities for survival and mortality explained as "don't know" had lower correlations with age, diseases, and specialist visits.CONCLUSIONS: When judging risks, 50% may reflect not knowing the probability, especially among individuals with low numeracy and education. Probabilities expressed as "don't know" are less valid. Eliciting uncertainty could benefit theoretical models and educational efforts.

Resumo Limpo

jectiv risk percept central good health decis peopl can judg valid probabl use disproportion author hypothes like respons reflect know probabl especi among individu low educ numeraci evalu use elicit dont know explanationsmethod respond n judg probabl live die next year indic whether gave good estim know chanc complet demograph medic histori numeraci questionsresult overal like probabl explain dont know v good estim correl use low educ numeraci mediat express dont know judg probabl surviv mortal explain dont know lower correl age diseas specialist visitsconclus judg risk may reflect know probabl especi among individu low numeraci educ probabl express dont know less valid elicit uncertainti benefit theoret model educ effort

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