Med Decis Making - Developing a tuberculosis transmission model that accounts for changes in population health.


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CKGROUND: Simulation models are useful in policy planning for tuberculosis (TB) control. To accurately assess interventions, important modifiers of the epidemic should be accounted for in evaluative models. Improvements in population health were associated with the declining TB epidemic in the pre-antibiotic era and may be relevant today. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a TB transmission model that accounted for changes in population health.METHODS: We developed a deterministic TB transmission model, using reported data from the pre-antibiotic era in England. Change in adjusted life expectancy, used as a proxy for general health, was used to determine the rate of change of key epidemiological parameters. Predicted outcomes included risk of TB infection and TB mortality. The model was validated in the setting of the Netherlands and then applied to modern Peru.RESULTS: The model, developed in the setting of England, predicted TB trends in the Netherlands very accurately. The R(2) value for correlation between observed and predicted data was 0.97 and 0.95 for TB infection and mortality, respectively. In Peru, the predicted decline in incidence prior to the expansion of "Directly Observed Treatment Short Course" (The DOTS strategy) was 3.7% per year (observed = 3.9% per year). After DOTS expansion, the predicted decline was very similar to the observed decline of 5.8% per year.CONCLUSIONS: We successfully developed and validated a TB model, which uses a proxy for population health to estimate changes in key epidemiology parameters. Population health contributed significantly to improvement in TB outcomes observed in Peru. Changing population health should be incorporated into evaluative models for global TB control.

Resumo Limpo

ckground simul model use polici plan tuberculosi tb control accur assess intervent import modifi epidem account evalu model improv popul health associ declin tb epidem preantibiot era may relev today object studi develop valid tb transmiss model account chang popul healthmethod develop determinist tb transmiss model use report data preantibiot era england chang adjust life expect use proxi general health use determin rate chang key epidemiolog paramet predict outcom includ risk tb infect tb mortal model valid set netherland appli modern peruresult model develop set england predict tb trend netherland accur r valu correl observ predict data tb infect mortal respect peru predict declin incid prior expans direct observ treatment short cours dot strategi per year observ per year dot expans predict declin similar observ declin per yearconclus success develop valid tb model use proxi popul health estim chang key epidemiolog paramet popul health contribut signific improv tb outcom observ peru chang popul health incorpor evalu model global tb control

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