BMC Med Inform Decis Mak - Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables.

Tópicos

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Resumo

CKGROUND: Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks.METHODS: Na?ve Bayes (NB) classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008.RESULTS: NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley.CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that Na?ve Bayes (NB) classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.

Resumo Limpo

ckground respiratori syncyti virus rsv major caus bronchiol larg impact census pediatr hospit outbreak season reliabl predict week outbreak will start base readili avail data help pediatr hospit better prepar larg outbreaksmethod nave bay nb classifi model construct use weather data consid variabl avail real time use forecast week rsv outbreak will occur salt lake counti utah outbreak start date determin panel expert use record icd code rsv bronchiol diagnos intermountain healthcar hospit clinic rsv season result nb model predict rsv outbreak week advanc estim sensit estim specif high temperatur wind speed best overal predictor weather variabl also show relev depend far advanc predict made weather condit predict rsv outbreak studi similar lead temperatur invers salt lake valleyconclus demonstr nave bay nb classifi model base weather data avail real time potenti use effect predict model model may abl predict week rsv outbreak will occur clinic relev clinic use will field test next five year

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