Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol - A Bayesian space-time model for discrete spread processes on a lattice.

Tópicos

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Resumo

In this article we present a Bayesian Markov model for investigating environmental spread processes. We formulate a model where the spread of a disease over a heterogeneous landscape through time is represented as a probabilistic function of two processes: local diffusion and random-jump dispersal. This formulation represents two mechanisms of spread which result in highly peaked and long-tailed distributions of dispersal distances (i.e., local and long-distance spread), commonly observed in the spread of infectious diseases and biological invasions. We demonstrate the properties of this model using a simulation experiment and an empirical case study - the spread of mountain pine beetle in western Canada. Posterior predictive checking was used to validate the number of newly inhabited regions in each time period. The model performed well in the simulation study in which a goodness-of-fit statistic measuring the number of newly inhabited regions in each time interval fell within the 95% posterior predictive credible interval in over 97% of simulations. The case study of a mountain pine beetle infestation in western Canada (1999-2009) extended the base model in two ways. First, spatial covariates thought to impact the local diffusion parameters, elevation and forest cover, were included in the model. Second, a refined definition for translocation or jump-dispersal based on mountain pine beetle ecology was incorporated improving the fit of the model. Posterior predictive checks on the mountain pine beetle model found that the observed goodness-of-fit test statistic fell within the 95% posterior predictive credible interval for 8 out of 10 years. The simulation study and case study provide evidence that the model presented here is both robust and flexible; and is therefore appropriate for a wide range of spread processes in epidemiology and ecology.

Resumo Limpo

articl present bayesian markov model investig environment spread process formul model spread diseas heterogen landscap time repres probabilist function two process local diffus randomjump dispers formul repres two mechan spread result high peak longtail distribut dispers distanc ie local longdist spread common observ spread infecti diseas biolog invas demonstr properti model use simul experi empir case studi spread mountain pine beetl western canada posterior predict check use valid number newli inhabit region time period model perform well simul studi goodnessoffit statist measur number newli inhabit region time interv fell within posterior predict credibl interv simul case studi mountain pine beetl infest western canada extend base model two way first spatial covari thought impact local diffus paramet elev forest cover includ model second refin definit transloc jumpdispers base mountain pine beetl ecolog incorpor improv fit model posterior predict check mountain pine beetl model found observ goodnessoffit test statist fell within posterior predict credibl interv year simul studi case studi provid evid model present robust flexibl therefor appropri wide rang spread process epidemiolog ecolog

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