Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol - Incorporating retrospective clustering into a prospective Cusum methodology for anthrax: evaluating the effects of disease expectation.

Tópicos

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Resumo

We analysed livestock anthrax in Kazakhstan from 1960-2006, using a prospective CUSUM to examine the affects of expectation on the detection of spatio-temporal clusters. Three methods for deriving baselines were used for CUSUM; a standard z-score, AVG, a spatially-weighted z-score derived from Local Moran's I, LISA, and a moving-window average, MWA. LISA and AVG elicited alarm signals in the second year that did not return below threshold during the 47-year period, while MWA signaled an alarm at year four and relented at year fifteen. The number of spatial clusters elicited varied: LISA n=16, AVG n=11, and MWA n=3, although there were clusters present around Shymkent, in south-central Kazakhstan, in each method. The results illustrate that the selection of a baseline with an unknown background population has a significant effect on the ability to detect the onset of clusters in space and in time when employing a CUSUM methodology.

Resumo Limpo

analys livestock anthrax kazakhstan use prospect cusum examin affect expect detect spatiotempor cluster three method deriv baselin use cusum standard zscore avg spatiallyweight zscore deriv local moran lisa movingwindow averag mwa lisa avg elicit alarm signal second year return threshold year period mwa signal alarm year four relent year fifteen number spatial cluster elicit vari lisa n avg n mwa n although cluster present around shymkent southcentr kazakhstan method result illustr select baselin unknown background popul signific effect abil detect onset cluster space time employ cusum methodolog

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