Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol - Predictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors: a case study of Ghana and Burundi.

Tópicos

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Resumo

Although recent efforts taken have substantially contained human onchocerciasis in many African countries, published reports indicate a recrudescence of the disease. To understand this problem, biophysical factors that favor the establishment of human onchocerciasis in Ghana and Burundi-countries identified as threat locations of recrudescence for neighboring countries-were analyzed. Data pertaining to the prevalence of human onchocerciasis in both countries was obtained from published sources. Findings in this study suggest that there was a gradient in prevalence of onchocerciasis in geographic locations near the water streams. The predictive models suggest that rainfall, humidity, and elevation were statistically significant for Burundi data while in Ghana, only the effect of elevation was highly significant (p<0.0001). In 2010, the estimated at-risk population was 4,817,280 people (19.75% of the total population) and 522,773 people (6.23% of the total population) in Ghana and Burundi, respectively. Findings can help in the effective design of preventive control measures.

Resumo Limpo

although recent effort taken substanti contain human onchocerciasi mani african countri publish report indic recrudesc diseas understand problem biophys factor favor establish human onchocerciasi ghana burundicountri identifi threat locat recrudesc neighbor countrieswer analyz data pertain preval human onchocerciasi countri obtain publish sourc find studi suggest gradient preval onchocerciasi geograph locat near water stream predict model suggest rainfal humid elev statist signific burundi data ghana effect elev high signific p estim atrisk popul peopl total popul peopl total popul ghana burundi respect find can help effect design prevent control measur

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