Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol - Assessment of land use factors associated with dengue cases in Malaysia using Boosted Regression Trees.

Tópicos

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Resumo

The transmission of dengue disease is influenced by complex interactions among vector, host and virus. Land use such as water bodies or certain agricultural practices have been identified as likely risk factors for dengue because of the provision of suitable habitats for the vector. Many studies have focused on the land use factors of dengue vector abundance in small areas but have not yet studied the relationship between land use factors and dengue cases for large regions. This study aims to clarify if land use factors other than human settlements, e.g. different types of agricultural land use, water bodies and forest are associated with reported dengue cases from 2008 to 2010 in the state of Selangor, Malaysia. From the correlative relationship, we aim to generate a prediction risk map. We used Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to account for nonlinearities and interactions between the factors with high predictive accuracies. Our model with a cross-validated performance score (Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve, ROC AUC) of 0.81 showed that the most important land use factors are human settlements (model importance of 39.2%), followed by water bodies (16.1%), mixed horticulture (8.7%), open land (7.5%) and neglected grassland (6.7%). A risk map after 100 model runs with a cross-validated ROC AUC mean of 0.81 (?0.001 s.d.) is presented. Our findings may be an important asset for improving surveillance and control interventions for dengue.

Resumo Limpo

transmiss dengu diseas influenc complex interact among vector host virus land use water bodi certain agricultur practic identifi like risk factor dengu provis suitabl habitat vector mani studi focus land use factor dengu vector abund small area yet studi relationship land use factor dengu case larg region studi aim clarifi land use factor human settlement eg differ type agricultur land use water bodi forest associ report dengu case state selangor malaysia correl relationship aim generat predict risk map use boost regress tree brt account nonlinear interact factor high predict accuraci model crossvalid perform score area receiv oper characterist curv roc auc show import land use factor human settlement model import follow water bodi mix horticultur open land neglect grassland risk map model run crossvalid roc auc mean sd present find may import asset improv surveil control intervent dengu

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