Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol - Foot and mouth disease revisited: re-analysis using Bayesian spatial susceptible-infectious-removed models.

Tópicos

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Resumo

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001 was modeled via the use of Bayesian spatial susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) models. In these models the underlying mean of the incident cases was modeled spatially and in time. Dependence structures at the parish level between previous and current cases were modeled either with individual dependence or with neighborhood dependencies. Additional confounding was modeled via random effects that can have either uncorrelated or spatially correlated prior distributions. The best models found relied on lagged population and infection count within the same parish but neighborhood lagged dependencies overall did not provide a good fit. Models with only a space-time interaction effect were preferred over more complex models. The estimation of 'decline' markers for different areas was considered via difference operators as posterior functionals. These proved to be useful in giving an early indication of the waning phase of the epidemic locally.

Resumo Limpo

foot mouth diseas fmd outbreak unit kingdom model via use bayesian spatial susceptibleinfectedremov sir model model under mean incid case model spatial time depend structur parish level previous current case model either individu depend neighborhood depend addit confound model via random effect can either uncorrel spatial correl prior distribut best model found reli lag popul infect count within parish neighborhood lag depend overal provid good fit model spacetim interact effect prefer complex model estim declin marker differ area consid via differ oper posterior function prove use give earli indic wane phase epidem local

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