Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol - Modeling habitat suitability for occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in domestic poultry in Asia: a spatial multicriteria decision analysis approach.

Tópicos

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{ general(901) number(790) one(736) }
{ risk(3053) factor(974) diseas(938) }
{ data(2317) use(1299) case(1017) }
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{ concept(1167) ontolog(924) domain(897) }
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{ model(2220) cell(1177) simul(1124) }
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Resumo

Risk maps are one of several sources used to inform risk-based disease surveillance and control systems, but their production can be hampered by lack of access to suitable disease data. In such situations, knowledge-driven spatial modeling methods are an alternative to data-driven approaches. This study used multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify areas in Asia suitable for the occurrence of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in domestic poultry. Areas most suitable for H5N1 occurrence included Bangladesh, the southern tip and eastern coast of Vietnam, parts of north-central Thailand and large parts of eastern China. The predictive accuracy of the final model, as determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC), was 0.670 (95% CI 0.667-0.673) suggesting that, in data-scarce environments, MCDA provides a reasonable alternative to the data-driven approaches usually used to inform risk-based disease surveillance and control strategies.

Resumo Limpo

risk map one sever sourc use inform riskbas diseas surveil control system product can hamper lack access suitabl diseas data situat knowledgedriven spatial model method altern datadriven approach studi use multicriteria decis analysi mcda identifi area asia suitabl occurr high pathogen avian influenza virus hpaiv hn domest poultri area suitabl hn occurr includ bangladesh southern tip eastern coast vietnam part northcentr thailand larg part eastern china predict accuraci final model determin area receiv oper characterist curv roc auc ci suggest datascarc environ mcda provid reason altern datadriven approach usual use inform riskbas diseas surveil control strategi

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