Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol - Spatio-temporal analyses of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam, 2009.

Tópicos

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Resumo

This paper presents the results of spatio-temporal analyses and epidemic modelling of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks that occurred in four provinces of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam between January and March 2009. Significant spatio-temporal interaction of disease risk was observed within a distance of 10 km and 12 days following the detected onset of clinical signs. We estimate that the household-to-household infection rate within a commune was approximately 50 times greater than the household-to-household infection rate between communes. Our findings show that the predominant mechanism of infection transfer was local spread. A comparison of disease control procedures and veterinary capacity in communes with relatively high and low infection rates should help to identify procedures essential for effective outbreak management in this area of Vietnam.

Resumo Limpo

paper present result spatiotempor analys epidem model hpai hn outbreak occur four provinc mekong river delta vietnam januari march signific spatiotempor interact diseas risk observ within distanc km day follow detect onset clinic sign estim householdtohousehold infect rate within commune approxim time greater householdtohousehold infect rate commune find show predomin mechan infect transfer local spread comparison diseas control procedur veterinari capac commune relat high low infect rate help identifi procedur essenti effect outbreak manag area vietnam

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