Comput Math Methods Med - Age-dependent estimates of the epidemiological impact of pandemic influenza (H1N1-2009) in Japan.

Tópicos

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Resumo

The total number of influenza cases with medical attendance has been estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan under a random sampling assumption of sentinel medical institutions among the total medical institutions. The 2009 pandemic offered a research opportunity to validate the sentinel-based estimation method using the estimated proportion of infections measured by the population-wide seroepidemiological survey employing hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay. For the entire population, we estimated the age-standardized proportion of infections at 28.5% and 23.5% using cut-off values of HI titer at 1:20 and 1:40, respectively. Investigating the age profiles, we show that the estimated influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with medical attendance exceeded the estimated infections among those aged from 0 to 19 years, indicating an overestimation of the magnitude by sentinel-based estimation method. The ratio of estimated cases to estimated infections decreased as a function of age. Examining the geographic distributions, no positive correlation was identified between the estimated cases and infections. Our findings indicate a serious technical limitation of the so-called multiplier method in appropriately quantifying the risk of influenza due to limited specificity of ILI and reporting bias. A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic.

Resumo Limpo

total number influenza case medic attend estim sentinel surveil data japan random sampl assumpt sentinel medic institut among total medic institut pandem offer research opportun valid sentinelbas estim method use estim proport infect measur populationwid seroepidemiolog survey employ hemagglutinin inhibit hi assay entir popul estim agestandard proport infect use cutoff valu hi titer respect investig age profil show estim influenzalik ill ili case medic attend exceed estim infect among age year indic overestim magnitud sentinelbas estim method ratio estim case estim infect decreas function age examin geograph distribut posit correl identifi estim case infect find indic serious technic limit socal multipli method appropri quantifi risk influenza due limit specif ili report bias seroepidemiolog studi plan advanc pandem

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