Comput Methods Programs Biomed - On the prediction of glucose concentration under intra-patient variability in type 1 diabetes: a monotone systems approach.

Tópicos

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Resumo

Insulin therapy in type 1 diabetes aims to mimic the pattern of endogenous insulin secretion found in healthy subjects. Glucose-insulin models are widely used in the development of new predictive control strategies in order to maintain the plasma glucose concentration within a narrow range, avoiding the risks of high or low levels of glucose in the blood. However, due to the high variability of this biological process, the exact values of the model parameters are unknown, but they can be bounded by intervals. In this work, the computation of tight glucose concentration bounds under parametric uncertainty for the development of robust prediction tools is addressed. A monotonicity analysis of the model states and parameters is performed. An analysis of critical points, state transformations and application of differential inequalities are proposed to deal with non-monotone parameters. In contrast to current methods, the guaranteed simulations for the glucose-insulin model are carried out by considering uncertainty in all the parameters and initial conditions. Furthermore, no time-discretisation is required, which helps to reduce the computational time significantly. As a result, we are able to compute a tight glucose envelope that bounds all the possible patient's glycemic responses with low computational effort.

Resumo Limpo

insulin therapi type diabet aim mimic pattern endogen insulin secret found healthi subject glucoseinsulin model wide use develop new predict control strategi order maintain plasma glucos concentr within narrow rang avoid risk high low level glucos blood howev due high variabl biolog process exact valu model paramet unknown can bound interv work comput tight glucos concentr bound parametr uncertainti develop robust predict tool address monoton analysi model state paramet perform analysi critic point state transform applic differenti inequ propos deal nonmonoton paramet contrast current method guarante simul glucoseinsulin model carri consid uncertainti paramet initi condit furthermor timediscretis requir help reduc comput time signific result abl comput tight glucos envelop bound possibl patient glycem respons low comput effort

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