Comput Methods Programs Biomed - Bayesian Decision Trees for predicting survival of patients: a study on the US National Trauma Data Bank.

Tópicos

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Resumo

Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models have been developed for predicting the survival probability of injured patients the majority of which obtain up to three injuries in six body regions. Practitioners have noted that the accuracy of TRISS predictions is unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries. Moreover, the TRISS method is incapable of providing accurate estimates of predictive density of survival, that are required for calculating confidence intervals. In this paper we propose Bayesian inference for estimating the desired predictive density. The inference is based on decision tree models which split data along explanatory variables, that makes these models interpretable. The proposed method has outperformed the TRISS method in terms of accuracy of prediction on the cases recorded in the US National Trauma Data Bank. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application.

Resumo Limpo

trauma injuri sever score triss model develop predict surviv probabl injur patient major obtain three injuri six bodi region practition note accuraci triss predict unaccept patient larger number injuri moreov triss method incap provid accur estim predict densiti surviv requir calcul confid interv paper propos bayesian infer estim desir predict densiti infer base decis tree model split data along explanatori variabl make model interpret propos method outperform triss method term accuraci predict case record us nation trauma data bank develop method made avail evalu purpos standalon applic

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