IEEE J Biomed Health Inform - Early Index for Detection of Pediatric Emergency Department Crowding.

Tópicos

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Resumo

When epidemics occur, such as is the case for Bronchiolitis in pediatric ED, the patient flow in the ED incontestably increases and can lead to crowding. We bypassed this difficulty of forecasting patient flow with aggregated weekly or monthly data, by tackling the problem from a different point of view. We used daily data to build a multi-period Serfling-based model. This model is hereinafter assimilated to normal ED flow. We then used the fourth-order moment of distribution of the Time Series, obtained from the difference between the estimated model and the real data, to provide an early index announcing abnormal ED patient flow. This index is parameter-dependent and we provide a criterion to assist in selecting the optimal parameters. A simple program based on this methodology has been developed and has been given to the pediatric physicians for testing. Thanks to this index, the Pediatric ED was able to anticipate crowding almost three weeks before the height of the Bronchiolitis epidemic.

Resumo Limpo

epidem occur case bronchiol pediatr ed patient flow ed incontest increas can lead crowd bypass difficulti forecast patient flow aggreg week month data tackl problem differ point view use daili data build multiperiod serflingbas model model hereinaft assimil normal ed flow use fourthord moment distribut time seri obtain differ estim model real data provid earli index announc abnorm ed patient flow index parameterdepend provid criterion assist select optim paramet simpl program base methodolog develop given pediatr physician test thank index pediatr ed abl anticip crowd almost three week height bronchiol epidem

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