Int J Health Geogr - Modelling zoonotic diseases in humans: comparison of methods for hantavirus in Sweden.

Tópicos

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Resumo

Because their distribution usually depends on the presence of more than one species, modelling zoonotic diseases in humans differs from modelling individual species distribution even though the data are similar in nature. Three approaches can be used to model spatial distributions recorded by points: based on presence/absence, presence/available or presence data. Here, we compared one or two of several existing methods for each of these approaches. Human cases of hantavirus infection reported by place of infection between 1991 and 1998 in Sweden were used as a case study. Puumala virus (PUUV), the most common hantavirus in Europe, circulates among bank voles (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, it causes nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans, a mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome.Logistic binomial regression and boosted regression trees were used to model presence and absence data. Presence and available sites (where the disease may occur) were modelled using cross-validated logistic regression. Finally, the ecological niche model MaxEnt, based on presence-only data, was used.In our study, logistic regression had the best predictive power, followed by boosted regression trees, MaxEnt and cross-validated logistic regression. It is also the most statistically reliable but requires absence data. The cross-validated method partly avoids the issue of absence data but requires fastidious calculations. MaxEnt accounts for non-linear responses but the estimators can be complex. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are reviewed.

Resumo Limpo

distribut usual depend presenc one speci model zoonot diseas human differ model individu speci distribut even though data similar natur three approach can use model spatial distribut record point base presenceabs presenceavail presenc data compar one two sever exist method approach human case hantavirus infect report place infect sweden use case studi puumala virus puuv common hantavirus europ circul among bank vole myod glareolus northern sweden caus nephropathia epidemica ne human mild form hemorrhag fever renal syndromelogist binomi regress boost regress tree use model presenc absenc data presenc avail site diseas may occur model use crossvalid logist regress final ecolog nich model maxent base presenceon data usedin studi logist regress best predict power follow boost regress tree maxent crossvalid logist regress also statist reliabl requir absenc data crossvalid method part avoid issu absenc data requir fastidi calcul maxent account nonlinear respons estim can complex advantag disadvantag method review

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