Int J Health Geogr - Zoom in at African country level: potential climate induced changes in areas of suitability for survival of malaria vectors.

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Resumo

CKGROUND: Predicting anopheles vectors' population densities and boundary shifts is crucial in preparing for malaria risks and unanticipated outbreaks. Although shifts in the distribution and boundaries of the major malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae s.s. and An. arabiensis) across Africa have been predicted, quantified areas of absolute change in zone of suitability for their survival have not been defined. In this study, we have quantified areas of absolute change conducive for the establishment and survival of these vectors, per African country, under two climate change scenarios and based on our findings, highlight practical measures for effective malaria control in the face of changing climatic patterns.METHODS: We developed a model using CLIMEX simulation platform to estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of these malaria vectors in relation to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity). The model yielded an eco-climatic index (EI) describing the total favourable geographical locations for the species. The EI values were classified and exported to a GIS package. Using ArcGIS, the EI shape points were clipped to the extent of Africa and then converted to a raster layer using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. Generated maps were then transformed into polygon-based geo-referenced data set and their areas computed and expressed in square kilometers (km(2)).RESULTS: Five classes of EI were derived indicating the level of survivorship of these malaria vectors. The proportion of areas increasing or decreasing in level of survival of these malaria vectors will be more pronounced in eastern and southern African countries than those in western Africa. Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa and Zambia appear most likely to be affected in terms of absolute change of malaria vectors suitability zones under the selected climate change scenarios.CONCLUSION: The potential shifts of these malaria vectors have implications for human exposure to malaria, as recrudescence of the disease is likely to be recorded in several new areas and regions. Therefore, the need to develop, compile and share malaria preventive measures, which can be adapted to different climatic scenarios, remains crucial.

Resumo Limpo

ckground predict anophel vector popul densiti boundari shift crucial prepar malaria risk unanticip outbreak although shift distribut boundari major malaria vector anophel gambia ss arabiensi across africa predict quantifi area absolut chang zone suitabl surviv defin studi quantifi area absolut chang conduc establish surviv vector per african countri two climat chang scenario base find highlight practic measur effect malaria control face chang climat patternsmethod develop model use climex simul platform estim potenti geograph distribut season abund malaria vector relat climat factor temperatur rainfal relat humid model yield ecoclimat index ei describ total favour geograph locat speci ei valu classifi export gis packag use arcgi ei shape point clip extent africa convert raster layer use invers distanc weight idw interpol method generat map transform polygonbas georeferenc data set area comput express squar kilomet kmresult five class ei deriv indic level survivorship malaria vector proport area increas decreas level surviv malaria vector will pronounc eastern southern african countri western africa angola ethiopia kenya mozambiqu tanzania south africa zambia appear like affect term absolut chang malaria vector suitabl zone select climat chang scenariosconclus potenti shift malaria vector implic human exposur malaria recrudesc diseas like record sever new area region therefor need develop compil share malaria prevent measur can adapt differ climat scenario remain crucial

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