Int J Health Geogr - Maximum linkage space-time permutation scan statistics for disease outbreak detection.

Tópicos

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Resumo

CKGROUND: In disease surveillance, the prospective space-time permutation scan statistic is commonly used for the early detection of disease outbreaks. The scanning window that defines potential clusters of diseases is cylindrical in shape, which does not allow incorporating into the cluster shape potential factors that can contribute to the spread of the disease, such as information about roads, landscape, among others. Furthermore, the cylinder scanning window assumes that the spatial extent of the cluster does not change in time. Alternatively, a dynamic space-time cluster may indicate the potential spread of the disease through time. For instance, the cluster may decrease over time indicating that the spread of the disease is vanishing.METHODS: This paper proposes two irregularly shaped space-time permutation scan statistics. The cluster geometry is dynamically created using a graph structure. The graph can be created to include nearest-neighbor structures, geographical adjacency information or any relevant prior information regarding the contagious behavior of the event under surveillance.RESULTS: The new methods are illustrated using influenza cases in three New England states, and compared with the cylindrical version. A simulation study is provided to investigate some properties of the proposed arbitrary cluster detection techniques.CONCLUSION: We have successfully developed two new space-time permutation scan statistics methods with irregular shapes and improved computational performance. The results demonstrate the potential of these methods to quickly detect disease outbreaks with irregular geometries. Future work aims at performing intensive simulation studies to evaluate the proposed methods using different scenarios, number of cases, and graph structures.

Resumo Limpo

ckground diseas surveil prospect spacetim permut scan statist common use earli detect diseas outbreak scan window defin potenti cluster diseas cylindr shape allow incorpor cluster shape potenti factor can contribut spread diseas inform road landscap among other furthermor cylind scan window assum spatial extent cluster chang time altern dynam spacetim cluster may indic potenti spread diseas time instanc cluster may decreas time indic spread diseas vanishingmethod paper propos two irregular shape spacetim permut scan statist cluster geometri dynam creat use graph structur graph can creat includ nearestneighbor structur geograph adjac inform relev prior inform regard contagi behavior event surveillanceresult new method illustr use influenza case three new england state compar cylindr version simul studi provid investig properti propos arbitrari cluster detect techniquesconclus success develop two new spacetim permut scan statist method irregular shape improv comput perform result demonstr potenti method quick detect diseas outbreak irregular geometri futur work aim perform intens simul studi evalu propos method use differ scenario number case graph structur

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