Int J Health Geogr - Mapping heatwave health risk at the community level for public health action.

Tópicos

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Resumo

CKGROUND: Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations.RESULTS: The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM+image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R?=0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north-south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high correlation between 2000 and 2001 risk indices (r=0.98, p<10??).CONCLUSIONS: Building on previous work, we developed a reproducible method that can provide guidance for local planners in developing more efficient climate impact adaptations. We recommend, however, using the health risk index together with hazard and vulnerability indices to implement tailored programs because exposure to heat and vulnerability do not require the same prevention strategies.

Resumo Limpo

ckground climat chang pose unpreced challeng rang global local polici challeng person social action heatrel death larg prevent intervent vulner popul need improv therefor prior identif high risk area communiti level requir better inform plan prevent aim demonstr simpl flexibl conceptu framework reli upon satellit thermal data digit data goal easili reproduc framework varieti urban configurationsresult studi area encompass renn mediums french citi landsat etmimag m resolut acquir local heatwav june use estim land surfac temperatur lst deriv hazard index landus regress model perform predict lst vulner assess census data describ four dimens socioeconom status extrem age popul densiti build obsolesc hazard vulner indic combin deliv heatwav health risk index lst pattern quit heterogen reflect land cover mosaic insid citi boundari hotspot elev temperatur main observ citi center spatial error regress model high predict spatial variat lst r parsimoni three land cover descriptor ndvi veget water fraction negat link lst sensit analysi base imag acquir juli yield similar result southern area exhibit vulner although pocket higher vulner observ northeast west citi heatwav health risk map show evid infrac spatial cluster highest risk observ northsouth central band anoth sensit analysi gave high correl risk indic r pconclus build previous work develop reproduc method can provid guidanc local planner develop effici climat impact adapt recommend howev use health risk index togeth hazard vulner indic implement tailor program exposur heat vulner requir prevent strategi

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