Int J Health Geogr - Near-present and future distribution of Anopheles albimanus in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Basin modeled with climate and topographic data.

Tópicos

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Resumo

CKGROUND: Anopheles albimanus is among the most important vectors of human malaria in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean Basin (M-C). Here, we use topographic data and 1950-2000 climate (near present), and future climate (2080) layers obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to project the probability of the species' presence, p(s), using the species distribution model MaxEnt.RESULTS: The projected near-present distribution parameterized with 314 presence points related well to the known geographic distribution in the study region. Different model experiments suggest that the range of An. albimanus based on near-present climate surfaces covered at least 1.27 million km? in the M-C, although 2080 range was projected to decrease to 1.19 million km?. Modeled p(s) was generally highest in Mesoamerica where many of the original specimens were collected. MaxEnt projected near-present maximum elevation at 1,937m whereas 2080 maximum elevation was projected at 2,118m. 2080 climate scenarios generally showed increased p(s) in Mesoamerica, although results varied for northern South America and no major range expansion into the mid-latitudes was projected by 2080.CONCLUSIONS: MaxEnt experiments with near present and future climate data suggest that An. albimanus is likely to invade high-altitude (>2,000m) areas by 2080 and therefore place many more people at risk of malaria in the M-C region even though latitudinal range expansion may be limited.

Resumo Limpo

ckground anophel albimanus among import vector human malaria mesoamerica caribbean basin mc use topograph data climat near present futur climat layer obtain general circul model gcms project probabl speci presenc ps use speci distribut model maxentresult project nearpres distribut parameter presenc point relat well known geograph distribut studi region differ model experi suggest rang albimanus base nearpres climat surfac cover least million km mc although rang project decreas million km model ps general highest mesoamerica mani origin specimen collect maxent project nearpres maximum elev m wherea maximum elev project m climat scenario general show increas ps mesoamerica although result vari northern south america major rang expans midlatitud project conclus maxent experi near present futur climat data suggest albimanus like invad highaltitud m area therefor place mani peopl risk malaria mc region even though latitudin rang expans may limit

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