Int J Health Geogr - Ecological niche model of Phlebotomus alexandri and P. papatasi (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the Middle East.

Tópicos

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Resumo

CKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to create distribution models of two sand fly species, Phlebotomus papatasi (Scopoli) and P. alexandri (Sinton), across the Middle East. Phlebotomus alexandri is a vector of visceral leishmaniasis, while P. papatasi is a vector of cutaneous leishmaniasis and sand fly fever. Collection records were obtained from literature reports from 1950 through 2007 and unpublished field collection records. Environmental layers considered in the model were elevation, precipitation, land cover, and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Models were evaluated using the threshold-independent area under the curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic analysis and the threshold-dependent minimum training presence.RESULTS: For both species, land cover was the most influential environmental layer in model development. The bioclimatic and elevation variables all contributed to model development; however, none influenced the model as strongly as land cover.CONCLUSION: While not perfect representations of the absolute distribution of P. papatasi and P. alexandri, these models indicate areas with a higher probability of presence of these species. This information could be used to help guide future research efforts into the ecology of these species and epidemiology of the pathogens that they transmit.

Resumo Limpo

ckground purpos studi creat distribut model two sand fli speci phlebotomus papatasi scopoli p alexandri sinton across middl east phlebotomus alexandri vector viscer leishmaniasi p papatasi vector cutan leishmaniasi sand fli fever collect record obtain literatur report unpublish field collect record environment layer consid model elev precipit land cover worldclim bioclimat variabl model evalu use thresholdindepend area curv auc receiv oper characterist analysi thresholddepend minimum train presenceresult speci land cover influenti environment layer model develop bioclimat elev variabl contribut model develop howev none influenc model strong land coverconclus perfect represent absolut distribut p papatasi p alexandri model indic area higher probabl presenc speci inform use help guid futur research effort ecolog speci epidemiolog pathogen transmit

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